Results of SD 6 Poll - Gumm in Dominant Position Entering 2010 Election
May 21st, 2010
To: Friends of Senator Jay Paul Gumm 2010
From: Andrew Myers and Ben Lazarus - Myers Research | Strategic Services
According to our recent poll, Senator Jay Paul Gumm begins his contest for re-election with an overwhelming advantage when pitted against an unnamed Republican challenger – in essence, allowing voters to envision their ideal Republican candidate. Today, Gumm leads this unnamed Republican challenger by a massive 47-points, 64 to 17 percent. Furthermore, in a simulated model, in which undecided voters are allocated to candidates based on their self-described partisan leanings, Gumm’s share of the vote balloons to 73 percent, while the Republican candidate attracts support from just 22 percent of voters.
Gumm’s strength is, in part, derived from his ability to appeal to voters of all partisan stripes here. Today, Gumm earns the support of 28 percent of self-identified Republicans, 52 percent of self-identified independents, and 82 percent of self-identified Democrats. This staggering Republican defection rate is significantly larger than trends we see in other polls across the country, especially in this current political environment, let alone in Oklahoma.
Gumm’s dominant position on the ballot is fueled by the strength of the personal connection he has forged with his constituents. Gumm has very high name recognition (86 percent of voters identify him), and among those who know him, he earns a blisteringly warm 75-degree mean personal feeling thermometer, as measured on a 0 to 100 scale. This mean, or average, rating is driven by a remarkable 10-to-1 favorable to unfavorable ratio (69 percent warm to 7 percent cool). Notably, these personal ratings are significantly higher than any other public figure we tested in this poll.
Finally, voters also give Gumm strong reviews for the job he is doing as State Senator. Fully two-thirds of voters give Gumm positive professional reviews, with 66 percent rating his job as excellent or good and just 23 percent rating it as just fair or poor – remarkable numbers for any incumbent in this political environment. These data point to one central truth; Senator Gumm is unequivocally on the path to re-election in 2010.
Andrew Myers and Ben Lazarus - Myers Research | Strategic Services